Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Matthew Holt
Matthew Holt

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